Market Wrap:
2nd-6th Sept

Investors are provided with market outlook insights to help plan out their long term goals. Read the latest commentaries from our industry experts.

This week we focused our attention on the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar. The RBA held interest rates at 1.00% as expected this week as recent tension between the US and China calmed down. This saw the risk-on sentiment return to the market giving risk on assets a boost.

The USD declined this week as expected, this came after the market broke into new highs last week. NFP numbers from July were revised lower to 159k jobs, August numbers also declined further to 130k jobs showing a potential slowdown in the labor market.

The USD index remains range-bound as the USD fell back through the highs. With the labor market slowing down the Fed might come under less pressure as the USD will weaken.

GBPUSD continued to head towards the key weekly lows at 1.2400. The USD weakness helped push the price of GBPUSD higher and with the commercials continuing to buy GBP price could break through the 1.2400.

AUDUSD broke out of the wedge pattern we looked at on the market outlook at the start of this week. The risk-on sentiment returning to the markets helped price break higher towards the key trendline resistance.

AUDCHF broke higher as expected and re-tested the key resistance lows around 0.6760. If we are to see further upside in this market, we need the price to close above the key resistance and the risk-on sentiment to continue.

EURAUD continued lower as the Australian Dollar strengthened, technically another weekly close bearish suggests further momentum to the downside. The weekly trendline support will be likely targets for short positions.

Gold started to reject the key resistance level of $1554.00, the RSI indicators show divergence with price forming higher highs and the RSI forming lower highs. The Commitment of Traders report shows the increase in short positions at these key highs highlighting a reversal is likely.

Market Outlook:
9th Sept

Investors are provided with market outlook insights to help plan out their long term goals. Read the latest commentaries from our industry experts.

The European markets will be in focus this week in terms of data releases. GDP data is set to be released this week for the UK with forecasts suggesting growth. This could help continue the current strength we are seeing out of the GBP recently. The European central bank is also set to release their current economic projections with a dovish tone likely to remain. The Euro has weakened significantly recently against most of the major currencies and is likely to continue going into this week.

The strength and weakness table changed drastically from last week with GBP gaining significant ground and the risk on sentiment bringing in sellers to the safe-haven currencies. The Euro, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc were the biggest losers of the week with the Pound and Canadian dollar being the biggest winners.

The USD Index rejected the $99.00 highs and closed back within the weekly channel. The last few times we have seen a significant bearish candle it has been followed by a bullish week. However, seasonal patterns suggest this could be the top for the USD and if price this week breaks the current candle lows selling momentum should continue.

AUDUSD broke out of the wedge pattern from the key lows highlighting the risk-on sentiment in the market currently. Now the price has formed a bullish breakout candle we could see price continue to head towards the longer-term weekly trendline resistance.

NZDUSD formed a bullish engulfing candle short of the key demand zone due to the USD weakness. The commitment of trader reports showed an increase in long positions for the New Zealand dollar and with the USD weakening, we could see some upside from these lows going into next week.

USDCAD formed a bearish engulfing candle off the key 1.3300 level, the market price action has been suggesting a fall here for some time and now we have a confirmed close lower the market looks likely to continue down into the lows of 1.3030. The strength and weakness table also adds confluence to this move with the Canadian Dollar gaining significant strength recently.

Brent Crude Oil closed the week bullish and looks likely to break higher if the USD weakens further. A break of the lows at 62.60 and trendline resistance will be added confirmation for oil bulls.

The commitment of trader’s report is showing a further increase in short contracts suggesting Gold prices could continue to move lower. Technically the weekly candle formed a bearish engulfing candle giving a strong indication that sellers have re-entered the market.

The SPx500 continued to work within a weekly channel, the weekly bullish close shows that the stock indexes look likely to continue their move higher back into the all-time highs. A weaker USD would be ideal for the stock markets to continue to move higher.

The Psychological Power of Trading

Trading successfully (at size) for any meaningful period of time is almost impossible without a clearly defined structure in place. More specifically: a structure that can be improved upon dynamically.

Adopting a month-to-month structure is a simple and effective way to remove the power of the past. Last month hardly matters now. With this attitude, we can better execute our plan now, and actively improve it going into the future.

Why a month? Well, it means you consult and update your trading plan twelve times every year. Plus, you can easily overlay your trading calendar with your personal calendar, allowing you to schedule optimally and address potential conflicts for the month before they arise.

This is a powerful way to stay balanced, live in the present, and plan well for the future. Simply by re-evaluating these ten things every month, you can improve your trading by leaps and bounds:

Ten things to rethink monthly

  1. Ensure that your objectives are well put together and still up-to-date.
  2. Your trading environment – does it limit distractions and enable focus?
  3. Schedule enough trading time – think of (and work around) any upcoming events.
  4. Are you giving yourself enough time and freedom to monitor trades properly?
  5. What will you do if you hit your daily, weekly or monthly goal(s) early?
  6. How detailed is your risk management plan? Could you update it at all?
  7. Your daily and weekly routines – are you happy with them? Could they be streamlined?
  8. What’s your plan for the worst-case scenario? Could you be any better prepared?
  9. How do you govern yourself and stay mindful of your own psychology? Is your ego healthy?
  10. Make sure to give yourself some (constructive) feedback, and then move on to next month…

If you can simply commit to probing these topics once a month, and enacting change when and where necessary, you are giving yourself all the necessary ingredients for success.

Blueberry Markets is not a financial adviser, and does not issue advice, recommendations, or opinion in relation to acquiring, holding or disposing of a margined transaction. We provide general advice only and accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on the advice.