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The RBA will be in focus this week as they outline their latest
outlook on monetary policy. The RBA will likely hold rates in the meeting this
week however, they will have to outline the trade deal between the US and China
as a major risk to growth. If Governor Lowe talks of any further need to ease rates,
we could see the bearish outlook continue for the Australian Dollar.
In other major news, we have key jobs data (Non-Farm Payroll) released from the US on Friday with the forecasts suggesting a rise through November. This is typical of this time of year as many companies will look to hire part-time staff to manage the Christmas rush.
The USD Index is currently finding resistance at the recent swing highs around $98.50. Seasonally the USD is weak through December and January which adds confluence to the break lower for the USD. Non-Farm payroll data is expected to be higher which could prop the USD up for the short-term.
AUDUSD looks likely to move lower and if the RBA continues to hold a dovish tone and mention further rate cuts then we will likely see the price of this currency pair continue to the support of 0.6700.
NZDUSD continues to remain range-bound working within a tight triangle pattern. The kiwi is fairly bullish due to the recent remarks from the RBNZ. But the recent USD strength has kept the currency pairs movement muted. If the USD weakens as we expect it to, we could finally see the price head towards the key 0.6500 resistance.
USDCAD has rejected the key resistance zone once again after the currency pair tried a number of times to break through to the upside. The price is currently being supported by the daily timeframe trendline and if the price breaks and closes below the support we could see a move back to the range lows of 1.3020.
USDCHF has found resistance at the key resistance and parity zone of 1.000. This currency pair has been ranging for weeks and if the USD weakens, we could see the market head towards the key support of 0.9842. The RSI being in an overbought condition also adds confluence to a move lower.
GOLD could be about to enter into a new bullish phase as the price recently found support again at the key $1450.00 zone. Seasonally Gold doesn’t usually rise until January and February however we could be seeing an early move as investors get ahead of the seasonal patterns.